A closing act that battles for the middle class again can change the race.

The Harris campaign had been moving effectively into at least a 3-point national lead, with impressive margins in the key battleground states, until it stalled and slipped into an effectively tied race. Knowing why will enable Democrats to close the high-stakes 2024 campaign with a focused campaign that engages voters and wins.

Election margins shift on this scale when the competing party bases get more people united, registered, and turned out to vote.

Biden was slipping to at least a 3-point deficit when he passed the torch to Kamala Harris. I was sending daily emails to the Biden team. The reason I was confident she would reverse the slide and move into a big lead was because Biden was underperforming with the young, millennials, unmarried women, Blacks, and Hispanics. Three in five Democratic base voters thought the country was on the wrong track. She was looking at a base that was discontented and wanted visible change.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.